With the months of September and October behind us, I want to be the first to give an update on the Fall Residential Manhattan Market since the industry market reports won’t be released until the end of the year. On October 12, the amount of inventory on the market exceeded 7000 available units to purchase. Since that date, the amount of inventory on the market has fluctuated between 7000 to 7215 units. This number will start to decline as properties are taken off the market for the holiday season. Here are some topics from the fall market:
There continues to be an excess supply of inventory without a corresponding increase in demand to prevent falling prices. The amount of inventory we are seeing on the market this fall is the highest amount we have seen in any fall season since 2011.
Contracts being signed is still near the same rates as the past few years. Deals are still getting done but nowhere near the amount needed to keep pace with the increased supply, which has led to a decline in pricing. Another factor that shows the declining market is the increased days on the market. According to UrbanDigs, average days on the market hit 88 on November 9 which represents a high not seen since December 16, 2012.
New supply for co-ops continues to increase as October 2018 marked the 15th straight month with a year over year increase in new supply for co-ops.
Co-op inventory priced at one million and under continues to increase at a staggering rate. This October showed a 92% increase for this price segment over three years ago.
While this market segment is slower from an excess amount of inventory on the market, contracts are still being signed on the same levels as last year. However, according to the Halstead Open House Index average open house attendance has fallen to 2.36 average attendees compared to an average of 4 one year ago. So what we are seeing is that those that are viewing properties are serious buyers and understand the opportunity to buy in a declining price environment with increased supply.
Specific neighborhoods and price points are more severely feeling this declining market than others. The Sutton Place, Tribeca and Financial District Condo markets are featuring a staggering amount of inventory with very few contracts being signed. Buyers in these neighborhoods have maximum leverage with very high supply and low competition from other buyers.
